A few days before the official campaign period before the snap parliamentary elections on July 11 in Bulgaria, Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF electoral coalition has 20.3 percent support among those intending to vote, with the party Slavi Trifonov’s ITN just behind with 18.2 percent. cent, according to the results of a poll released by Alpha Research on June 9.
In third place are the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) led by Kornelia Ninova at 14.4%, Democratic Bulgaria (DB) at 11.9%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) at 9.9% and the movement “Rise Up! The gangsters out! 5.3 percent coalition.
According to the Alpha Research poll, currently below the four percent threshold for winning a share of the seats in the National Assembly are the ultra-nationalist coalition of the “Bulgarian Patriots” (VMRO, Volya and the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria) 3.4 percent and the pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane party 2.8 percent.
Vassil Bozhkov’s Bulgarian summer party has 1.1% support, according to the poll. On June 2, Bozhkov was among those designated by the United States as subject to sanctions.
Alpha Research said that after the announcement of US sanctions against Delyan Peevski and Bozhkov, the vote for the GERB fell by 2%, the largest drop for Borisov’s party in such a short period.
The GERB is losing ground, except in Sofia. Its die-hard supporters are heavily mobilized, but the wider periphery may not turn out to the polls, the polling agency said.
ITN’s absence in the media and public debates means that it has not made significant progress on its April 4 election result. Trifonov’s party grew by around one percent.
Uncertainty over electoral support for ITN was heightened by mixed signals over Trifonov’s future, pollsters said.
This week, Trifonov said he would not be running as a deputy candidate “because my place is not there, but to be responsible for the people who are there and what they do.” Of course, I can bear this responsibility of another institution, but as for that… when the time comes ”.
Exit polls in April showed that around 20 percent of ITN voters decided to vote for the party in the final days before the vote.
“Such a mobilization cannot be ruled out today, but the hesitations at the start of the campaign, especially among those who closely follow political life, contribute to the potential volatility of this vote and to a possible reorientation towards others. protest parties.
The BSP failed to increase its result because voters were demotivated by internal party relations while there was a growing attitude to voting for far left parties.
“However, during the campaign, the BSP may impose a more convincing chosen formula for participation in the elections, and the process of legitimization through the interim government within the framework of the” anti-status “parties will help to attract voters. hesitant from other parties. “
DB was strengthening its position, Alpha Research said.
“Unlike the GERB, after the US sanctions and their declared support (of the DB) for decisive anti-corruption policies, it has consolidated additional support. It extends its influence in the regional poles and in particular with the graduates of higher education.
Alpha Research said it was customary for the MRF to strengthen its position at the end of the campaign and especially with voters abroad.
The voters of “Rise Up! Mobsters Out ”had a profile similar to“ radical-emotional and very mobile ”Trifonov, which is why it was possible for them to vote for other anti-systemic parties.
The polling agency said that at the start of the election campaign, the possibility of a fragmented National Assembly, with six or seven groups, resurfaced.
At present, the isolation and attacks on the GERB are leading to a decline, but not a collapse, in its support.
“It is very likely that the protesting parties will be in a better position in the next legislature. In certain circumstances, a stronger convergence of positions between them is also possible.
Most Bulgarians expect the next parliament to form a government.
While 33.1% had positive opinions about the interim government and 23% negative opinions, the largest proportion, 43.9%, had mixed opinions, which also led people to want a functioning Parliament and a elected government.
Alpha Research said 53.2 percent of those polled intended to vote in the July election, an increase of about 1.5 percent from the agency’s pre-campaign poll for the April vote.
The poll was conducted by Alpha Research between May 30 and June 7. The agency used its own funds and published the results on its website. The survey was conducted among 1007 adult citizens from across the country. A two-stage stratified sample with quotas for the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected by means of a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
Alpha Research is responsible for the data and interpretation published on its website, but not for the selective or manipulative use of that data, the agency said.
(Photo: Ministry of the Interior)
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